Once the go-to airline for Nigerian travellers flying to Dubai, Emirates Airlines now finds itself in an unusual predicament—empty seats on its Lagos-Dubai flights. The airline is reportedly reconsidering its decision to resume operations on the route, not because of unpaid debts, but due to visa restrictions that have significantly reduced the number of Nigerian passengers.

Months ago, a diplomatic agreement between Nigeria and the UAE allowed Emirates to resume flights to Lagos. However, when the airline’s planes finally landed in the Nigerian city, the welcome was far from grand. No water cannon salutes or cheering crowds greeted the aircraft—just rows of vacant seats, an unexpected sight for a route that once boasted fully-booked flights.

So, what went wrong? The issue is clear: many Nigerians, once frequent flyers to Dubai, are still struggling to secure UAE visas, due to stringent policies introduced following years of diplomatic tension. As a result, Emirates has found itself flying half-empty planes—a stark contrast to the busy days when its Lagos-Dubai flights were a goldmine.

The situation raises a critical question: Did Emirates misjudge the demand? Just a few years ago, Lagos-Dubai flights were among the airline’s busiest. Now, the tightened visa rules have pushed potential customers out of the market, leaving Emirates in an awkward position. With the airline already dealing with half-empty planes, it’s now left pondering whether the route is still viable.

Moreover, competition is heating up. Nigeria’s own Air Peace has been steadily expanding its presence on the Lagos-Dubai route, and new bilateral agreements could give the airline a stronger foothold. If Emirates decides to pull back, Air Peace could step in and offer Nigerian travellers an alternative that doesn’t involve navigating the complex visa process.

For now, Emirates is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Keeping the route open means flying half-empty planes, but halting it altogether could jeopardise future negotiations with Nigerian authorities. Either way, the airline is learning a tough lesson—when customers feel unwelcome or face barriers, they seek alternatives.

If Emirates decides to pull out, it won’t be the first time the airline has scaled back operations in Nigeria. However, this time, it won’t be unpaid debts keeping passengers grounded—it will be the airline’s own visa policies creating obstacles. And in an industry where every seat counts, this could prove to be a costly decision for the airline.